Analysis of Série A situation after the first two rounds

What happened in the Brasileirão during the first two rounds? Who overperformed and who underperformed?

Série A 2019 so far presented a few statistical oddities. 15 clubs have 3 points or more, and only 2 clubs haven’t collected a point yet.

Only 3 clubs collected the 6 points possible.The first results indicate a very levelled competition, perhaps even more than in the recent past. It is very possible to see in the end of the year a winner that has had the focus in the competition for a longer time due to early elimination from the cups (Libertadores and Brazil Cup) such as what happened with Corinthians and Cruzeiro earlier in the decade.

The first 2 rounds were very levelled, more than 50% of the teams (11) won once and lost once.

90% of the matches had a winner, and even with this very small number of draws (2) we had a distribution of points over the classification table that can be called fair and balanced. Only 3 teams won both matches and the 2 sides that haven’t collected a point yet aren’t that bad. We surely will have interesting rounds ahead.

Teams that won both matches: We can’t say São Paulo and Santos here are a total surprise, but Santos surely had a harder schedule in the 1st 2 rounds, facing Grêmio on the road.

The big surprise at this group of teams with 6 out 6 points collected is Atlético-MG, as they begun the tournament in a crisis, counting on an interim coach, however, the 3 teams at the very top of the classification table surely are traditional teams. Atlético’s most likely obstacle for a potential title fight is the age of their key players, which is always an important factor in a competition of 38 fixtures.

Current title holders have 4 points, which is not that bad considering that they fielded subs against CSA on the road, however, Palmeiras coach Scolari was very upset after the match of the 2nd round due to a defensive mistake which allowed CSA to score. Anyways, 4 out 6 points collected definitely isn’t a poor start.

11 clubs with 3 points: The best explanation for the performance of these teams is the home factor. 70% of the first 20 matches ended up in home win, and many teams won at home in the 2nd round after losing on the road in the 1st one, the cases of Corinthians, Inter, Cruzeiro, Fortaleza and Botafogo. In sum, 10 out of 11 teams with 3 points won at home and lost on the road in the first two rounds, only Goiás lived a different situation.

Only 1 point collected: Grêmio, Avaí and CSA had rather poor starts.

Avaí had good chances to collect 2 or 3 points as they faced Atlético-MG during a crisis and Grêmio at their domains, and the visitors also fielded a team with a few subs and a much confuse formation.

CSA’s 1 point might be the only situation kind of acceptable, given that they were just promoted after over 30 years away from top national football. They have faced the title holders and the other match was away. In spite of this possibly important point, ⅙ points collected is a proportion that is just too little and wouldn’t save them from relegation, they must improve their rate of collected points.

Grêmio’s 1 point is the most surprising situation in the tournament so far. The club had a home match where they are amongst the strongest of the country and they had an away match which wasn’t that hard. 3 or 4 points was the least expected from the Gaúchos.

0 point so far: Fluminense and Vasco had poor starts but Vasco’s situation is definitely worse. While Fluminense had a polemic result in the 1st round, Vasco’s 0 point situation is kind of expected considering the political, financial and technical crisis they are living at the moment.